“But CAGW”

The central square in the ClimateBall bingo.


[JUNIOR] Why You Can’t Trust The Insurance Industry’s Secret Science On Climate Catastrophes

[NATHAN] The intense debate about the exact percentage of climate scientists who believe in catastrophic climate change is predicated on Dadaist science.

[BENJAMIN] Fact check: climate change is not an existential threat to humanity.

[TOBY] Climate doomsayers keep putting sell-by dates on their credibility

[BEN] Abrupt ecosystem collapse, 1.5°C climate catastrophe by 2025-2030, and mass extinction.

Objections and Replies

(CAGW) But all CAGW is
Reply. Stop right here. “CAGW” isn’t the scientific position, but a contrarian strawman.

(No strawman) It’s not a strawman, for here is
Reply. The caricature lies in suggesting that the established view is CAGW. It’s not.

(Commonplace) I keep hearing the C word
Reply. Mostly by contrarians. How would you describe a 4C world by 2100?

(Alarmism) To speak of catastrophe is alarmist
Reply. How do you know? Let’s look at a specific claim and see how it fares.

(Existential) AGW is not an existential threat
Reply. That’s a low bar, and not exactly true: a 6 degrees world is still in the cards, and the last time this happened 97% of the species were wiped out.

(Too late) In our model the world is already past a point-of-no-return.
Reply. Your model might have major flaws.


{CAGW} The acronym CAGW stands for Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. It does not refer to the established view. Contrarians simply added a “C” to “AGW.”

{Warning} If you want to do something about AGW and your whole point reduces to “let’s talk more about CAGW” when the main freaking argument contrarians have is “But CAGW,” then your armchair quarterbacking sucks.

{Center} This square may be compatible with all the other ones.

{See also} Correlated to #ButAlarmism.

Further Readings

2010-06. Global Warming. The NASA provides a good introduction.

2018-06. The Planet Has Seen Sudden Warming Before. It Wiped Out Almost Everything. A reminder that the end of Permian era was hard for life on Earth.