“But Consensus”


[CHRIS] Unfortunately, 97% consensus is too often construed as 97% certainty.

[FUTURIST] Having 98% of bigfoot researchers agree that bigfoot exists doesn’t make it so.

[NATHAN] The intense debate about the exact percentage of climate scientists who believe in catastrophic climate change is predicated on Dadaist science.

Objections and Replies


(Objectivity) A measure of consensus is not an objective basis for—
Reply. An objective basis for knowledge would be a good idea. While we’re waiting for that objective basis, consensus is here to stay.

(Truth) Having 98% of scientists saying something does not make it so—
Reply. To err is part of the empirical course. Never being wrong is a problem.



{Core theory} Most disciplines can reach consensus about an overall theory while disagreeing about some parts of it. In fact, one could even argue that almost every single scientist can still disagree with one another while reaching consensus on the basics. Exactly like the consensus over AGW.

Further Readings

202-01. For the first time, the Alarmed are now the largest of Global Warming’s Six Americas.

2019-10. Climate Change and Human Health.

2013. The Consensus Project. Website coming with C13.