This square is for the various ways to attack the predictability of climate science.


[TalkMaster] Not ONE single climate doomsday prediction over the past 60 years has come true. Not one.

[No Shit Dept] Hey, Rick- why don’t you try getting a single fucking catastrophic prediction correct before waxing cocksure?

[Janitor] My perspective is that of a biochemical engineer. I specialize in heat transfer, mass transfer & modelling of coupled non-linear dynamical systems. Climate models are useful for studying climate mechanisms but utterly useless for long term forecasting.

Objections and Replies

§1. Climate scientists predictions always fail. –

That’s false. For instance, (Hausfather & al 2020) assessed models from 1970 to 2007. Their predictions fared quite well. If we look at 2019, it’s right in line with the old CMIP5 models. There are many other comparisons, as climate scientists tend to test their models a lot. See my collection.

§2. This or that prediction failed. –

That’s easy to say. Which one do you have in mind?

§3. Most extreme predictions failed. –

Not sure how you know that. Got a link?

§4. Climate science cannot make prediction.

Either it makes false predictions, or it cannot make predictions. Make up your mind. This trope does not cohere with #ButInfalsifiable.

§5. Climate science can’t predict a shit. –

To be fair, that’s not really what they are designed for (Tim Osborn).


As always, when watch for the incoming squirrel after asking for specifics.

The concept of prediction is less clear than we usually presume.

See also But12Years, ButModulz, ButJim.