“But Predictions”

Various ways to attack the predictibility of climate science.


[TalkMaster] Not ONE single climate doomsday prediction over the past 60 years has come true. Not one.

[No Shit Dept] Hey, Rick- why don’t you try getting a single fucking catastrophic prediction correct before waxing cocksure?

[ROB] The problem is that the experts have been predicting impending climatic doomsday for decades, and they have always been wrong.

[LUTHERTARIAN] Exxon scientists were actually wrong with their predictions.

Objections and Replies

(Always fail) Climate scientists predictions always fail. –

Reply. That’s false. For instance, (Hausfather & al 2020) assessed models from 1970 to 2007. Their predictions fared quite well. If we look at 2019, it’s right in line with the old CMIP5 models. There are many other comparisons, as climate scientists tend to test their models a lot. See my collection.

(Handwaving) Some prediction P failed, most extreme predictions failed, etc.

Reply. That’s easy to say. Which one do you have in mind?

(Exxon prediction) Exxon was wrong. –

Reply. Look at Andrew’s graphs. See also this article.

(Impossible) Climate science cannot make prediction.

Reply. Either it fails to predict, or it cannot. Make up your mind.

(No shit) Climate science can’t predict a shit. –

Reply. To be fair, that’s not really what they are designed for (TimO).


{Look! Squirrel!} As always, watch out for deflection after asking for specifics.

{Concept of prediction} Predictability is less clear than we usually presume.

{Robustness hierarchy} Whining about climate modulz does not cohere with appeals to economic modulz. Yet many contrarians will do both, like Adam.

{Predictibility network} See also #But12Years, #ButModulz, #ButFalsification.